Gregory spicer – 07/29/2025 – nba free agency
Damian Lillard is returning home to the Portland Trail Blazers in a move that many hoped for, but few expected. We don’t know how many teams had Lillard in their sights, but analysts across the NBA seemed certain he would bring his talents to a squad with more immediate contention aspirations. Despite these assumptions, Lillard is flexing his loyalty and returning to the 36-46 Trail Blazers, where he spent his first 11 NBA seasons.
Given his past media interactions where he talked about not having much to do in Milwaukee, and his personal battles at the time of his trade to the Milwaukee Bucks, he was surely feeling a bit homesick. That isn’t to say he didn’t enjoy teaming up with superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo on the Bucks. They shared many impressive moments, and Lillard represented Milwaukee in two All-Star games, including an All-Star Game MVP. However, a torn achilles on April. 27 and the Bucks’ Myles Turner signing opened the door for a historic waive that put Lillard on the open market.
What analysts have failed to consider when breaking down the Blazers/Lillard fit is that this move is giving him the best of two worlds. Portland may not be ready to win the championship this season, but Lillard is going to spend the year recovering from his Achilles injury. Signing with a tense, finals-or-bust team could have led to a rushed return or cap space issues.
Breaking down the roster, Portland is close to competing. They already possess one of the deepest teams in the NBA. This depth features a valuable combination of experienced two-way veterans and low-cost, high-potential young players.
Core Roster-
- C Donovan Clingan (Age 20) – 6.5 PTS/7.9 TRB/1.6 BLK – All Rookie 2nd 2024/25
- C Yang Hansen (Age 20)- 10.8 PTS/5.0 TRB/3.8 AST/2.3 BLK in Summer League
- PF Toumani Camara (Age 24) – 11.8 PTS/5.8 TRB/1.5 STL – All Def 2nd 2024/25
- F Deni Avdija (Age 24) – 16.9 PTS/7.3 TRB/3.9 AST
- F Jerami Grant (Age 30) – 14.4 PTS/3.5 TRB/2.1 AST
- SF/FG Shaedon Sharpe (Age 21) – 18.5 PTS/4.5 TRB/2.8 AST
- PG Scoot Henderson (Age 20) – 12.7 PTS/3.1 TRB/5.0 AST
- G Jrue Holiday (Age 34) – 11.1 PTS/4.3 TRB/3.9 AST – 2x AS and 6x All Def
Expiring Contracts Before 2026/27-
- Robert Williams III – $13.29 Million – UFA
- Mattisse Thybulle – $11.5 Million – UFA
This is why the year off for Lillard is crucial. With so much talent, there will be a lot of competition for shots and ball time. The Blazers will use this season to organize who will stay for the future and who should be moved to build a contending organization.
Portland has also built a strong defensive identity. They finished the final month of 2024/25 as a top defensive team. Head coach Chauncey Billups had his players hustling and taking matchups seriously, which led to high ranks in both perimeter defense and rebounding. The main adjustment they will look to make this season is to establish more consistency on that end. They were still at the bottom of the NBA in transition and paint points allowed. A healthy three-man center rotation combined with an extra year of experience for Donovan Clingan could turn that around quickly, however.
(Chart Stats are only from the Last Month of the nba regular season)

Salary-cap-wise, this is a nice steal for Portland. I project Lillard will still be at least a $20 million dollar player after injury, and if he returns fully healthy, then that’s a $50 million dollar jackpot for the price of $14 million.
After the 2025/26 season, the contracts of Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams will be up, gaining almost $25 million in cap room for Portland. Not only do the Blazers have plenty of space for Lillard’s contract, they will also have some flexibility to build or extend their roster after 2025/26.

Overall, this move grades an A. Portland is building a sustainable window for success, and Lillard gives them a low-risk/high-reward option that could increase their ceiling. The key to its success is that Lillard’s injury timeline and the Blazers’ rebuild timeline match up perfectly.

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