Basketball Operations Brief

Houston has more resources invested IN the center position than any other team. Will it work?

08/13/2025 – Gregory spicer – nba offseason

The Houston Rockets have had one of the most prominent offseasons in the NBA. After finishing 52-27 (2nd seed) in 2024/25, but losing in the first round, they are looking to take the next step. The addition of Kevin Durant was certainly the headline of their summer; however, they also invested a lot of salary into their center rotation. 

They now have four centers signed long term, and only one (Jabari Smith Jr) also plays power forward.

• Alperen Sengun – 5 Years / $185 Million
• Jabari Smith Jr – 5 Year / $122 Million
• Steven Adams – 3 Year / $39 Million
• Clint Capela- 3 Year / $21 Million

For the upcoming season, Houston will be fine. The Jabari Smith Jr. contact extension doesn’t kick in until the following year, allowing the Rockets to splurge on a veteran frontcourt.

After this season, though, Sengun and Jabari Smith JR. will both be in their extensions, and the Capela/Adams duo will remain under contract until 2027/28. This means that the 2026/27 and 2027/28 seasons will have huge questions regarding the Rockets’ depth chart and salary cap. 

The combined contracts of these four players will take up this percentage of the salary cap each season: 

2026/27

• Alperen Sengun – 20.95%
• Jabari Smith Jr. – 14.29%
• Steven Adams – 7.64%
• Clint Capela – 4.25%
• TOTAL – 47.13%

2027/28

• Alperen Sengun – 19.95%
• Jabari Smith Jr. – 11.95%
• Steven Adams – 6.34%
• Clint Capela – 4.05%
• TOTAL – 42.29%

Houston was smart to make all of these contracts regress in value. Along with that favorable format, none of these contracts are an overpayment. Sengun is the homegrown all-star whose extension was mandatory, Smith Jr. provides essential defense and floor spacing at a prime position, and Capela/Adams are both serviceable, experienced big men. 

The conflict arises when breaking down fit. Sengun can barely shoot, and Adams/Capela are non-factors outside of the paint. Unless it’s in small spurts, those three players shouldn’t share the court. 

The 6’11” Smith Jr. provides a little more versatility down low. His 35% 3PT shot makes him a viable floor spacer at power forward, and he’s athletic enough to cover opposing forwards. Despite this “viability,” Smith Jr. still isn’t being maximized. 

Hoops Data can track and chart a player’s role on their team, and correlate that role with their efficiencies/skillset to judge if a team is utilizing them correctly. According to their statistics, Smith Jr. was primarily used offensively as a stationary shooter. While he can play this role effectively, it appears that his most useful role would be as a versatile big man who spaces the floor AND positions himself inside. With Sengun, Adams, and Capela all taking up the paint space, there is no foreseeable future where Smith Jr. can fully embrace that potential. 

Defensively, Smith Jr. is best as a help defender. As shown in the defense chart, this is also the role he has been put in most often. The concern is that most of his help opportunities came as a result of his mid-season benching, which allocated him more minutes at backup center. Also, when he did start, he was playing with Sengun, who isn’t a strong paint defender. This allowed the Rockets to fully utilize Smith JR.’S help defense. 

With Capela added to the mix and Adams’ large extension likely locking in his rotation spot, Smith Jr. is sure to see fewer minutes as the primary rim protector than he did last season. If the chart’s trend holds and his only true value on defense is as a help defender, then his defensive impact could be minimized. 

This data still isn’t a huge concern for Houston. Smith Jr. is young and has a lot of time to grow his game. From a front office side, though, it is odd. They just invested cap in Smith Jr. for the next five-plus seasons, so you would think that building a good fit around him and Sengun would be a priority.

What can Houston do?

Start Jabari Smith Jr. + Don’t Play One Of Adams/Capela

Last year’s bench experiment for Smith Jr. was helpful, but given his recent extension, it can’t continue. If they are to capitalize on their talent and get the most out of their salary cap, Houston has to start Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Smith Jr, and Sengun together. This will make for the biggest lineup in the NBA. So from that point, it’s on head coach Ime Udoka to make it work. 

This lineup does pose offensive question marks. Thompson and Sengun both struggle to shoot, which puts a lot of pressure on Smith JR. as a floor spacer. A role we know he isn’t the best fit for. Defensively, however, it gives him the chance to be a primary help defender. 

Make Moves After This Season

Along with an adjusted starting lineup, the Rockets should alter their roster after this year. They could elect NOT to resign Durant. That would be a huge disappointment to the fanbase and Durant, but they didn’t give up a lot for him. If they can secure a championship this season or the fit isn’t great, it could be worthwhile to prioritize their future cap space. 

They could also trade one of Adams and Capela. Their age and contracts mean that Houston won’t get a solid return or may even have to give up assets to shed their deals, but this is the most likely course of action. Using Adams/Capela as a future expiring contract for a trade would fix their depth chart issues and reallocate the money towards a new target. 

Overall, the Rockets are building an interesting center rotation. Houston doesn’t exactly have a problem, but there are real questions around the fit of their roster and how they are going to make each contract worthwhile.